This is the real reason behind Putin’s roulette

Kari Liuhto, a Russia expert and professor at the University of Turku, says that Vladimir Putin’s leadership changes belie Putin’s fear of his own position.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reshuffling the leadership of his administration by appointing Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as secretary of the Security Council and moving former secretary Nikolai Patrushev to other posts.

Kari Liuhto, a Russian expert and professor at the University of Turku, said the movement primarily wanted Patrushev, who had grown too strong, to step aside.

– The main thing for him is that no one becomes too strong, because he is afraid of his own position, Liuhto says.

Both Shoigu and Patrushev are Putin’s longtime allies and confidants in varying degrees for decades. Patrushev was appointed Chairman of the Security Council in 2008. In 2012, Choik became the Defense Minister.

According to Kari Liuhto, the changes in the system speak to the fact that, in Putin’s eyes, everything is no longer in balance.

– If the situation were stable from Putin’s point of view, he would not start doing such things. Clearly, he also feels a certain pressure to do such things.

Last week, Vladimir Putin was photographed thoughtfully in Moscow. EPA/AOP

I got fat

Shoigu is considered Putin’s loyal executor to the end.

Kari Liuhto assesses that Putin will make the Security Council even better with Shoigu in charge. According to Liuhto, for Šoigu, promotion is at stake.

Patrushev, on the other hand, is known as an ideologue.

– Patrushev’s ideology is very wild, no matter what you understand about it now. It represents an absolute power principle, says Liuhto.

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Putin is believed to have led the attack on Ukraine through his speeches during the pandemic. The decision to attack turned out to be ill-fated, and according to Liuhto, the expulsion was all about Putin firing a gun at Patrushev.

– Patrushev The devil behind the whole special operation is war. During the Corona period he whispered in my ear, this has to be done now, and then the whole thing went down the drain, Liuhto recounts.

good news

Kari Liuhto doesn’t believe the leadership change will have an immediate effect on the war, but otherwise he thinks Patrushev’s ouster is good news for Russia and the West.

– His world of thought is very militaristic, which is not at least in the interests of Russia.

It is not yet known what Patrushev’s future work will be.

– It will be interesting to see what that title is. “I think he’ll get a nice degree from some secondary organization,” Liuhto reflects.

Patrushev is believed to have handed over the presidency after Putin to his son Dmitry Patrushev, who served as Russia’s agriculture minister. He is still allowed to continue as a minister, but Kari Liuhto sees that the situation has changed.

– The era of the Patrushev dynasty is now over, and that is by no means a bad thing for the West.

Liuhto estimates that Patrushev might try a countermovement, but to him, it is uncertain whether anything can be done. Liuhto says he’s keenly following how Patrushev’s inner circle reacts to the situation.

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– How will they jump off that boat, because it’s a bit difficult in Russia. Once you’ve chosen a clan, it’s hard to leave.

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